Football Betting....thoughts from a football handicapper....
Football betting is not about which team is better. Well, at least not entirely. The primary factor in the line (aka pointspread) on a football game, or any sport, is perception of the two teams. The goal of the line is to generate betting on both sides of the game. The sportsbooks goal is to have equal money on both sides and they make their money on the juice (aka vig or vigorish) and are very happy. That's why lines move, if they're getting too much money on one side, they'll move the line to encourage more betting on the other side and in turn less on the side that is getting the action. So the oddsmakers are not deciding who is 3 or 7 points better than who they are working to get balance on the action.
That's why public perception of teams must be factored into setting the line, and for football handicappers we must consider where this gives us an edge. An example of this in the NFL that was the San Francisco 49ers, also the Dallas Cowboys. These are very popular national teams and have a tendcy to have more "fans" and they will generally have the possibility of getting more action on their side. So the oddsmakers may round a line just a bit to account for this extra action. There are many examples in college football as well, most notably Notre Dame. Perhaps one of the most overrated teams in the history sports almost every year. And with a ridiculously large legion of fans the Irish will almost always have a public adjusted line in their games because they get so much action from fans - many betting with their hearts and not their heads. But as any good handicapper knows, your heart is a long way from your wallet.
So how does this help a professional football handicapper? A top handicapper will always have an eye on pointspreads of so called fan favorite teams as mentioned above. Especially as these teams have some early success this "tweaked" line will become even more pronounced and a good handicapper will play against that to his and his clients advantage.
We welcome your comments on this article...
College and NFL Football Headlines
UNC receiver Little won't travel for LSU gameNorth Carolina receiver Greg Little won't travel to Atlanta for the 18th-ranked Tar Heels' opener against No. 21 LSU due to the ongoing NCAA investigation at the school, a person with knowledge of the decision said Thursday night.
North Carolina - North Carolina Tar Heels - National Collegiate Athletic Association - Atlanta - LSU
Utah upsets 15th-ranked Pittsburgh in OT
Utah freshman Brian Blechen intercepted a pass on the first play of overtime, setting Joe Phillips for a 21-yard field goal that gave the Utes a 27-24 victory against No. 15 Pittsburgh on Thursday night.
Utah - Utah Utes - United States - Maps and Views - Recreation and Sports
WVU: Nike to alter uniform ad that upset activists
West Virginia University says Nike will modify the graphic in a promotional ad for a new football uniform that depicts a mountaintop removal mine.
West Virginia University - Nike - West Virginia - Mountaintop removal mining - United States
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Barkley throws 5 TDs as USC outlasts Hawaii
Matt Barkley and Ronald Johnson connected on three touchdowns to make Lane Kiffin a winner in his first game as Southern California coach. No. 14 USC beat Hawaii 49-36 on Thursday night to start the post-Pete Carroll era.
Lane Kiffin - Ronald Johnson - Matt Barkley - Southern California - Pete Carroll
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Wake Forest has its highest-scoring opener since '41
Ted Stachitas had 160 total yards in his first college start and Wake Forest had six rushing touchdowns in a 53-13 rout of Presbyterian in the season opener for both teams Thursday night.
Wake Forest University - Wake Forest - United States - North Carolina - Education
Home field continues to be Utah's advantage
Looking for the first upset of the season? Look no further. Jordan Wynn throws for three TDs as Utah stuns 15th-ranked Pittsburgh 27-24 in OT. The Utes' home-field advantage comes through once again, Michael Black says.
Utah - Touchdown - United States - Utah Utes - Mike Shanahan
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